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Watch the thesis, not the ticker

A price alert tells you something moved. It never tells you whether the reason you own it is still true.

A thesis is not a paragraph. It is a set of named assumptions, each with the evidence behind it, each with a stated condition that would break it, and each one still being checked long after the memo was filed.

01

The thesis is decomposed

A position's reasoning becomes discrete, named assumptions rather than prose. An assumption can be monitored; a paragraph cannot.

02

Each one carries its evidence

Supporting and contrary items are held side by side and counted separately. Five supporting against four contrary is a disagreement, not a finding.

03

Each one has a state

Active, weakening, strengthened, broken. The state is what a human last decided, never what a model last inferred.

04

The state history is kept

Nothing is overwritten. The prior state and the evidence in front of the person at the time stay readable, the pre-outcome record is the asset.